But there are several signs that the worst hits from the shutdowns are in the rearview mirror and that the economy has begun to recover.

The gauges we use to measure the economy, such as gross domestic product, are at best rough outlines that attempt to describe conditions created through an endless series of exchanges of products and services through the mediums of currencies and credit.

And many of those available to us as “high frequency” or “real-time” data suggest recovery has already begun.

But seeing some regular seasonal behavior is a sign that the economy is on the mend.  We still do not know if warmer weather will temper the rate of coronavirus infections but we do know it has decreased the propensity for Americans to avoid venturing out.

As the month opened, reservation volumes were down 99.9 percent compared with a year prior.

Germany, however, has seen a massive recovery from 100 percent in early May to a 54 percent decline this weekend.

But the official unemployment rate, already at a record, will likely climb higher before it begins to moderate.

Most forecasters seeing it remaining elevated into early next year.

And the GDP numbers for the second quarter will likely confirm that we are in a deep recession.

Most forecasters think the economy will shrink at an annualized rate of 40 percent in the second quarter after contracting at a 4.8 percent rate in the first quarter.

But it is expected to bounce back in the third and fourth quarters, although the economy will likely end the year 6 to 7 percent smaller than it was at the end of 2019.

But those quaterly figures can conceal the fact that the real economy doesn’t really have quarters.