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COVID-19 Could Be a Seasonal Illness – Recurring in Periods of Lower Humidity - SciTechDaily
Jun 02, 2020 2 mins, 13 secs

A study conducted in Sydney during the early epidemic stage of COVID-19 has found an association between lower humidity and an increase in locally acquired positive cases.

Researchers discovered a 1 percent decrease in humidity could increase the number of COVID-19 cases by 6 percent.

“We need to be thinking if it’s wintertime, it could be COVID-19 time.” — Professor Michael Ward.

The research led by Professor Michael Ward, an epidemiologist in the Sydney School of Veterinary Science at the University of Sydney, and two researchers from our partner institution Fudan University School of Public Health in Shanghai, China, is the first peer-reviewed study of a relationship between climate and COVID-19 in the southern hemisphere.

We need to be thinking if it’s wintertime, it could be COVID-19 time,” said Professor Ward.

Previous research has identified a link between climate and occurrence of SARS-CoV cases in Hong Kong and China, and MERS-CoV cases in Saudi Arabia, and a recent study on the COVID-19 outbreak in China found an association between transmission and daily temperature and relative humidity.

“The pandemic in China, Europe, and North America happened in winter so we were interested to see if the association between COVID-19 cases and climate was different in Australia in late summer and early autumn,” Professor Ward said.

“When it comes to climate, we found that lower humidity is the main driver here, rather than colder temperatures,” Professor Ward said.

Professor Ward said there are biological reasons why humidity matters in transmission of airborne viruses.

“When the humidity is lower, the air is drier and it makes the aerosols smaller,” he said.

Professor Ward and his team studied 749 locally acquired cases of COVID-19 — mostly in the Greater Sydney area of the state of New South Wales — between February 26 and March 31.

The study found lower humidity was associated with an increased case notifications; a reduction in relative humidity of 1 percent was predicted to be associated with an increase of COVID-19 cases by 6 percent.

“This means we need to be careful coming into a dry winter,” Professor Ward said, adding that the average humidity in Sydney is lowest in August.

“Even though the cases of COVID-19 have gone down in Australia, we still need to be vigilant and public health systems need to be aware of potentially increased risk when we are in a period of low humidity,” Professor Ward said.

Professor Ward said the study was limited to cases contracted in the summer months mostly in and around Sydney, so further research is needed in the months to come and further afield.

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