“We continue to adjust the modeling to ensure that it tracks our ongoing understanding of the pandemic,” Dr.

The Oregon Health Authority released new modeling Friday showing a dramatically different coronavirus landscape than previously estimated, suggesting far more people already have been infected while simultaneously forecasting far fewer infections in the weeks ahead – even under worst-case projections.

The modeling projects that about 20,200 Oregonians have been infected with coronavirus through May 22, with roughly 4,000 of those people identified.

“We continue to adjust the modeling to ensure that it tracks our ongoing understanding of the pandemic,” Dr.

Importantly, the new modeling forecasts far few infections in the weeks ahead under both best- and worst-case scenarios.

The Oregon Health Authority, which creates the forecasts using software from the Institute for Disease Modeling, cautioned that forecast windows are wide and estimates should be interpreted with caution.

While testing has identified infections in about 4,000 people and 151 people have died, Oregon has one of the lowest infection and death rates nationally.

The number of people requiring hospitalizations has also declined in recent weeks, the state noted, but “this trend may change as Oregon counties begin phased reopening.”.

The health authority did not produce a modeling report last week, noting at the time that “experts want to allow a week to gather additional data on coronavirus infections following the state’s approval of 31 counties to begin limited reopening.”.

New modeling will be released in two weeks, on June 12.