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rocket history and the sometimes painful and fatal ways we have learned the lessons of what happens when launch officers don’t listen to the weather and what the vehicle is built to handle

Launch Commit Criteria weather is a detailed set of guidelines that outlines the environmental limits a rocket and spacecraft can experience during ascent and landing to ensure a successful end of mission

And weather Launch Commit Criteria must also take into account not just the 45th Space Wing’s overall Range safety requirements for the protection of people on land, at sea, and in the air, but also the rocket-specific weather requirements determined by the company that owns and operates the vehicle

Some of those launch operator-specific weather criteria include how close rain can be to the pad at launch, wind speed and direction, upper level wind shear limits, and others

But there are less-known rules that come into effect that cause launch teams to have to scrub for lightning even when there is no lightning anywhere near the launch pad

Another element to launch weather calculations is abort needs

For launches without people, the launch weather is largely confined to the conditions in the area around the pad.  But once a crew is onboard, an additional commit criteria for abort location weather is needed

Falcon 9 launches into moody but Launch Commit Criteria acceptable weather conditions from SLC-40 at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

This can provide additional frustration to those who travel hundreds and even thousands of miles to a launch site, as abort weather scrubs can and do happen when the launchsite weather is absolutely perfect. 

Back in the Shuttle era, abort weather considerations were somewhat easy to assess as the Shuttle Orbiters had to land on runways where support teams could make test flights to confirm all weather rules were “go” for an abort landing

These abort location launch day forecasts were provided in conjunction with the NOAA National Weather Service and their Space Flight Meteorology Group in Houston Texas

For Demo-2, those two groups will be called on for the first time in nearly nine years to provide launch day abort landing weather forecasts for a crew mission to the SpaceX launch team at Kennedy, the SpaceX flight control team in Hawthorne, California, and the NASA Mission Control team in Houston, Texas

For the long-awaited Crew Dragon mission with Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley on Wednesday afternoon, a number of weather constraints are in place for launch and recovery

The following weather Launch Commit Criteria must be satisfied for Crew Dragon to launch:

Like the Space Shuttle, in order for Falcon 9 to launch with Crew Dragon, weather at specific locations within Dragon’s four abort zones must be within recovery limits