Byelections, the Covid inquiry and a budget – what does UK politics have in store?

His party is way behind in the polls, and every week brings another crisis – small boats, school buildings, NHS waiting lists soaring, councils going bust.

Then, on 19 October, the Tories will try to hold on in what should be the dead-safe seat of Mid Bedfordshire within their blue heartlands, formerly held by Boris Johnson fan Nadine Dorries.

Also on 19 October, the Tories will defend Tamworth in Staffordshire, vacated by Chris Pincher who was found by the Commons Standards to have been guilty of an “egregious case of sexual misconduct” at London’s Carlton Club last year.

In early November, Lady Hallett, who heads the Covid inquiry, will be summoning a string of Tory politicians past and present to talk about their handling of the pandemic.

The chancellor of the exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, will update MPs on the country’s finances and its plans for tax and public spending, which will be based on the latest economic and financial forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

With the public finances stretched as they are, all eyes and ears will be on whether he can give cause for any optimism, and indicate room for tax cuts in the runup to the general election, which are a key demand of many on the right of his party.