After the fastest recession in U.S. history, the economic recovery may be fizzling - The Washington Post

The pandemic shock, which economists once assumed would be only a temporary business interruption, appears instead to be settling into a traditional, self-perpetuating recession.

Fresh labor market weakness would represent a profound disappointment for millions of American workers and President Trump, who is eager to highlight economic progress with only a few months remaining before the November election.

The economy did regain a total of 7.5 million jobs in May and June, faster than many economists anticipated.

In April, the company said: “The crisis has provided an opportunity to reevaluate every aspect of our business and strategic plan.

The unemployment rate never reached the Depression-caliber level of 20 percent that many economists had feared in March, topping out so far at 14.7 percent.

But layoffs that initially were described as a temporary response to a health crisis are hardening into something more permanent, leaving millions of workers scrambling to regain their footing in a changed economy.

Even allowing for some double-counting in the figures, that means nearly 20 percent of those who were working in February are now jobless, according to economist Julia Coronado, president of Macropolicy Perspectives.

It is no longer a question of returning to the pre-pandemic environment that existed as recently as four months ago, economists said.

The company said last week it would lay off 700 workers, aiming to trim quarterly expenses by $100 million.

“Businesses have to be conservative and cautious and resize their business for the worst-case scenario of an economy that doesn’t bounce back,” said Coronado.

As the virus has raged longer than first expected, some companies are concluding that they just don’t need as many workers as they did in February, said Heidi Shierholz, former chief economist at the Labor Department.

In a survey of its members, the National Federation of Independent Business said more than half of respondents had used up their loans and 22 percent planned to lay off workers as a result.

Individual and government efforts to blunt the pandemic’s spread must intensify to prevent a deeper or extended downturn, economists said

“I don’t think any of us think we’ll get the economy back to 100 percent before there’s a medical answer,” said James Glassman, JPMorgan Chase’s head economist for commercial banking