Aggressive gerrymandering may make elections far less competitive, experts say

GOP state legislators, who control far more of the redistricting process than Democrats this year, have already started to secure themselves a sizable advantage, but Democrats, who already are expected to face a tough midterm season, are eyeing or enacting some gerrymanders of their own.

North Carolina lawmakers spent years defending the last decade’s gerrymandered maps in court, which they freely admitted were partisan gerrymanders; state courts forced them to redraw the Congressional maps in 2016 and 2019, but the Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that federal courts couldn’t police partisan gerrymandering.

By the end of the decade, the redrawn map still appeared to disproportionately boost Republicans: In 2020, Republicans won less than 50 percent of the statewide vote in statewide races, but secured 8 of 13 Congressional seats.

Next year, recently enacted maps are expected to extend that advantage, electing 10 Republicans and 4 Democrats in a deeply purple state, according to an analysis of the map by the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, a nonpartisan team of researchers analyzing redistricting maps.

The new maps split the county into three different Congressional districts, cracking urban residents of Greensboro, N.C.

The map gives Democrats control of 14 of the state’s 17 seats, according to a Princeton Gerrymandering Project analysis which gave the state an F-grade on the map, particularly singling out its lack of geographic compactness, partisan fairness, and competitiveness.

But the commission created to assist with map drawing came up short this fall, sending the Congressional maps back to the GOP-run state legislature, which created maps that experts say are extremely gerrymandered in their favor.

Democrats are expected to win approximately three seats out of the 15 Ohio was apportioned this year, according to political data.

Republicans currently hold eight of 13 Congressional seats in the state.

The proposed map, which still needs the governor's signature to be enacted, would give Republicans an additional seat, according to the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, leaving Democrats with just five seats in the state that recently voted to send President Joe Biden and two Democratic senators to Washington.

The map won a C-grade from the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, which notes there are no competitive seats in the state.

Ken Lawler, chair of nonpartisan group Fair Districts GA, said the map appeared to reduce Black representation in the state.

The maps will likely elect 13 Democrats and 25 Republicans to Congress, according to the Princeton Gerrymandering Project analysis which rated the map with an F-grade.

Li said Texas and Georgia’s maps appear to be trying to "neutralize" fast-growing, increasingly diverse suburbs that have boosted Democrats in recent years