Antivirals Rather Than Vaccines For COVID-19 - Seeking Alpha

The likelihood appears slim of an adequately effective and widely available vaccine being in commercial use before H2 2021.

However, despite Operation Warp Speed and the immense hyperbole surrounding vaccine candidates in the COVID-19 arena, the likelihood appears slim of an adequately effective and widely available vaccine being in commercial use before H2 2021.

It should also be remembered that the FDA has approved no effective vaccine against other coronaviruses (e.g., those causing the common cold, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).

Given the scale of the COVID-19 pandemic, the threshold of efficacy for a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 is understandably quite low.

For FDA approval, a vaccine would have to be at least 50% effective in preventing or reducing the severity of COVID-19.

Yet, doubt again starts to emerge in vaccine strategies when there are rumors that Moderna’s (MRNA) critical phase 3 study of its COVID-19 vaccine, mRNA-1273, has been delayed.

However, significant doubts remain regarding whether GILD will overcome its remdesivir supply problems, and even about whether remdesivir is particularly effective: anecdotal reports from frontline healthcare professionals suggest that remdesivir may only be minimally effective in patients with COVID-19.

Given the contemplative clinical advantages of galidesivir over remdesivir, together with the increasingly urgent need to introduce effective treatments for SARS-CoV-2 infection, positive news for galidesivir might increase BCRX share price to greater than $10 before July end.

CYDY recently released efficacy data from a compassionate-use program in 10 critically ill patients with COVID-19: leronlimab restored immune function and significantly reduced plasma viral load.

Further, in a July 3 press release, CYDY emphasized that a phase 2 study in the US (NCT04343651) has met its 75-patient enrollment target in mild-to-moderate COVID-19.

CYDY will supply leronlimab for the treatment of COVID-19 for distribution by American Regent and will receive quarterly payments based on a profit-sharing arrangement.

Therefore, it seems that FUJIY and favipiravir are way behind BCRX and CYDY regarding the potential future clinical utility of antivirals as treatments for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Anecdotally, the outlook for BCRX and CYDY seems extremely upbeat and, if results for galidesivir and leronlimab, respectively, are indeed positive, then July increases in share price for both companies may be to well above the $10 mark.

However, given the urgent need for effective antivirals, and the extent of government resources targeted at the coronavirus problem, a diverse range of antivirals - besides galidesivir and leronlimab - may soon be available to treat COVID-19: such antivirals potentially include, among numerous others, EIDD 2801, a viral replication inhibitor from Ridgeback Biotherapeutics and Merck (MRK); merimepodib, an orally active inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase inhibitor from BioSig Technologies (OTC:BSGM); and opaganib, a sphingosine kinase-2 inhibitor from RedHill Biopharma (RDHL).

Overall, antivirals appear to hold greater promise than vaccines for the management of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Importantly, results for galidesivir and leronlimab should be released imminently, and, within July, we might expect significant surges in the share prices of BCRX, CYDY, and GILD.