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Behind in Polls, Republicans See a Silver Lining in Voter Registrations - The New York Times

Behind in Polls, Republicans See a Silver Lining in Voter Registrations - The New York Times

Behind in Polls, Republicans See a Silver Lining in Voter Registrations - The New York Times
Oct 19, 2020 2 mins, 7 secs

Democrats lead in overall numbers, as well as early voting, but voter registration gains in three critical states have given Republicans a cause for hope.

With President Trump trailing in public polls in nearly every major battleground state, Republicans are pointing to what they see as more promising data: Updated voter registration tallies show that Republicans have narrowed the gap with Democrats in three critical states.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, Republicans hope that gains in voter registration in the three states — Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — and heavy turnout by those new party members might just be enough to propel Mr.

Voter registration numbers alone are not predictive about the outcome of races: Democrats had a surge in voter registrations in 2018, and went on to win the House of Representatives but lost some races in key states where they had an overall registration edge.

Democrats also led Republicans in voter registration in several key states in 2016 that they ended up losing.

In addition, at least six battleground states — Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin — do not break down voter registration by party, though Democrats point to some perceived gains there.

In data released last week by the Florida secretary of state’s office, Republicans had narrowed the registration chasm with Democrats to 134,000 out of 14.4 million voters — fewer than 1 percent.

Nicholas notes that, despite the registration numbers, population trends in the state benefit Democrats, adding that a growing number of people are registering to vote without declaring a party affiliation.

Recent figures from Pennsylvania elections officials show that Republicans have added 174,000 voters since 2016, while Democrats lost 31,000.

Brendan Welch, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said that Republicans’ gains could be traced to voters who were previously registered as Democrats but who had voted Republican for years, and cited Republican registration increases in counties that Mr.

Records show Democrats lost 136,000 voters since 2016 while Republicans gained 100,000, though Democrats still lead in overall registrations by 400,000, with 2.6 million Democrats and 2.2 million Republicans.

Bitzer said, Democrats have shown gains by another metric — the number of newly registered voters in the state.

“The national narrative of simply taking the net numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans in this state belies the fact that among new registered voters, Democrats have, in total, held their own against Republicans,” he said.

And Tim Wigginton, a spokesman for the North Carolina Republican Party, said the voter registration numbers were an overall plus for his party, particularly when combined with unaffiliated voters and registered Democrats who vote Republican in presidential races

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