China isn't about to invade Taiwan. But the two sides are on a dangerous path - CNN

But despite the rhetoric and the military saber-rattling, analysts agree China is unlikely to invade Taiwan anytime soon, with one expert adding the chance of invasion in the next 12 months is "close to zero."

Beijing has cast waves of aggression toward the island ever since the former Nationalist government fled there at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.

The public is largely unconcerned about the threat of invasion, and the regular incursions barely warrant a mention on the front page of newspapers.

But that doesn't mean there's no reason for alarm.

Beijing is piling military, economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan to achieve its longterm goal of "One China" -- a single united country including the island.

And experts worry that if Chinese Communist Party leaders believe they have no hope of a peaceful "reunification," they may turn to more drastic measures to fulfill their ambitions.

Although Taiwan and China have been separately governed for more than 70 years, Beijing views the democratic island of 24 million people as part of its territory and has regularly stated its aim of "reunification," despite the fact Taiwan has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party.

To try to force Taiwan's hand, Beijing has spent the past 40 years trying to isolate the island by chipping away at its diplomatic allies with offers of support -- Taiwan now only has full diplomatic relations with just 15 countries.

But despite Beijing's best efforts, Taiwan has gained more global influence since early 2020.

Countries around the region are defending Taiwan's right to self-governance like never before.

Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with Global Institute Taiwan, said the growing tensions between the US and China had also helped Taiwan boost its profile.

"Taiwan realizes that the international community is becoming a little bit more accommodating to Taiwan, more understanding of the role that Taiwan as a liberal democracy has to play in this growing clash of ideologies," he said.

Rather than a prelude to an invasion, the increased Chinese flyovers are a symbol of Beijing's frustration and a reminder to Taiwan and the US not to cross China's "red lines," said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

That's when Xi's second term ends, though it's almost certain he'll stay on as President.

Wen-Ti Sung, a fellow at the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University (ANU), said Xi also wants to garner support ahead of a meeting of the Communist Party in November where a shortlist of candidates for higher office will be finalized.

A strong policy on Taiwan could determine how many allies he can place in top positions for the next five years.

"At a moment like this, using some show of force to drum up nationalist sentiment, create a 'rally around the flag' effect, is usually a good thing for the incumbent, for the commander-in-chief," he said.

And the Communist Party has major priorities over the coming year which an invasion of Taiwan would dramatically complicate -- a smooth-running Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics in February and the imminent 20th party congress.

China's 'peaceful reunification' goal

One of the clearest signs of Beijing's reluctance to invade Taiwan came from an unusual source -- Xi himself.

In a speech on October 9, the Chinese President emphasized his desire for "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, and appeared to imply he was prepared to wait for the island to voluntarily comply.

"When I read what Xi Jinping says about Taiwan I'm struck at the lack of urgency," Glaser said.

Aiming for a peaceful resolution to the standoff over the Taiwan Strait makes sense -- experts have long said that any attempt by Beijing to forcefully take the island would be a hugely costly endeavor, with an uncertain outcome.

In extensive war games held by the US earlier this year, the American forces were able to thwart a simulated Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the year 2030 -- just.

But some experts said it is possible Taiwan has already passed the point of no return for Beijing and any "reunification" is unlikely, barring a massive change in either the Communist Party's stance on civil liberties or Taiwan's position on China.