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College football SP+ rankings after Week 7 -- The Big Ten is coming, Alabama and Clemson keep dominating - ESPN

College football SP+ rankings after Week 7 -- The Big Ten is coming, Alabama and Clemson keep dominating - ESPN

College football SP+ rankings after Week 7 -- The Big Ten is coming, Alabama and Clemson keep dominating - ESPN
Oct 18, 2020 1 min, 42 secs

Among teams that have played thus far, Clemson is the only one with a top-5 offense and defense, while, ho hum, Alabama only has an offense that grades out even better than Joe Burrow and LSU last year.

Alabama's current offensive SP+ rating of 48.0 adjusted points per game grades out in the 99.8 percentile.

A quick procedural note: Because of all the oddities of 2020 -- the diminished offseason practice time, the fact that we're whistling along with teams frequently missing one-quarter or one-fifth of their scholarship players for a given game, etc.

I set it up so that preseason projections were phased out more slowly than normal while we figured out the predictive effects of all these oddities.

That phasing-out process is now closer in line to how I've done things in previous years, which means that for teams that have played a handful of games now, their ratings are more reflective of how they've played to date.

That should have a positive effect on predictions, but it does bring one oddity to the table: it means teams moved up or down this week based not on Saturday's results but on previous weeks'.

Florida State, which had played nowhere near its projections to date, fell quite a bit despite beating North Carolina.

If a team made a decent jump during an off week (hello, Oklahoma State) or made a movement that wasn't in line with results to date, that's probably why.

Five teams jumped more than 10 spots this week:.

They beat two preseason contenders -- Louisiana Tech and WKU, respectively -- by a combined 72-31 on Saturday and are the only two top-75 teams in the league.

A few teams also moved down quite a bit.

First, as mentioned above, preseason projections were propping them up considerably.

Extremely unfriendly preseason projections

Their preseason SP+ rating was minus-3.2 adjusted points per game, and four games in, that's still more than 50% of their overall SP+ rating.Florida has fallen 17 spots, from third to 20th

They get less of a boost for overachieving projections in that game

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