Could the novel coronavirus one day become a common cold? - Livescience.com

The deadly SARS-CoV-2 may one day become a commonly circulating cold virus that just causes some mild sniffles.

Scientists don't know how that finale will play out but a new model offers a teaser: The deadly SARS-CoV-2 may not totally disappear but instead become a commonly circulating cold virus that just causes some mild sniffles.

It's not clear how long immunity, whether from vaccines or natural infection, to SARS-CoV-2 will last in people; it's also unknown to what degree vaccines and natural infections will curb transmission or reduce the severity of the disease. .

The model assumes that immunity to SARS-CoV-2 will work similarly to these other endemic coronaviruses, Lavine said.

And one of the model's key conclusions is that, for existing coronaviruses, the severity of infection during the endemic phase is directly tied to how severe the disease is when it infects children.

Their model predicts that if SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, and future generations are primarily exposed during childhood, the virus "may be no more virulent than the common cold," the authors wrote.

But if SARS-CoV-2 severely impacted children, as is the case with the virus that causes MERS, then even during the endemic phase, a relatively high number of people might die, the authors predicted.

If this model holds true, exactly how the world will reach the endemic phase is still up to us: Faster virus spread will result in a quicker transition as people gain herd immunity, but it will result in more deaths.

Vaccines are a safer way to achieve such immunity and once widely available, they will also accelerate the transition into a possible endemic phase — a phase in which the coronavirus may be tackled with a box of Kleenex, rather than ventilators and lockdowns.