COVID-19 surge is now helping to create herd immunity - Los Angeles Times

As coronavirus cases plummet nationwide and vaccinations total 1.7 million Americans a day and rising, health experts are increasingly striking a new tone in their pandemic assessments: optimism.

Paul Offit, a vaccine expert at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.

The arrival of spring will likely aid the ongoing precipitous drop in coronavirus cases, as warmer weather allows people to spend more time outdoors and creates a less hospitable environment for the virus, experts say.

While 12% of Americans have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, far more people — approximately 35% of the nation’s population — have already been infected with the coronavirus, Offit estimated.

Studies have found that people who survive COVID-19 have immunity for several months, though it likely lasts even longer.

George Rutherford said one of the reasons why cases are dropping so fast in California “is because of naturally acquired immunity, mostly in Southern California.” He estimated that 50% of Los Angeles County residents have been infected with the virus at some point.

“We’re really talking something starting to sound and look like herd immunity — although that true herd immunity is a ways off in the future,” Rutherford said recently.

After a horrific autumn and winter wave that has killed more than 12,000 people, an estimated 33% to 55% of county residents have already been infected with the coronavirus, according to USC researchers.

County, where new daily cases have been falling for five weeks, said Dr.

“The fact that cases are going down right now, as opposed to going up, is because approximately a third of everybody in Los Angeles County is immune to COVID.”.

Paul Simon, who pointed out that 60% of Angelenos would remain vulnerable even if more than a third have already been infected with the coronavirus.

If so many people in the county weren’t already immune, the R value would be about a third higher, or just above 1, Lewis said.

Since the pandemic began, nearly 30 million Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus, but the true number who have contracted the virus is likely three or four times higher due to low levels of testing and the fact that many people who are infected never develop symptoms, experts say.

Allowing COVID-19 to run rampant to quickly achieve herd immunity, as some had promoted early in the pandemic, would have led to even more deaths and chronic health problems, experts say.

It remains unclear exactly what the threshold for herd immunity is with this virus with some scientists estimating that herd immunity may be achieved when 50% of people are immune, while others believe the threshold is closer to 90%, said L.A.

The uneven geographical distribution of infections may also leave some pockets of the county more vulnerable than others, he said.

“We don’t know quite yet what level of vaccination and protection would be required to get herd immunity across the county,” Simon said in briefing Friday.

“As we see the number of new cases drop dramatically — that will be I think the best clue that we’re reaching herd immunity, particularly if we see it across the county.”.

County lag behind in getting COVID-19 vaccine.

County lag behind in getting COVID-19 vaccine.

Offit said he would be concerned if people who already had COVID-19 or who had been vaccinated were being hospitalized due to infections caused by a new variant

“What worries me a little bit is when you hit September, and then it gets colder again, and there may be a variant that emerges,” and people stop wearing masks and physically distancing, Offit said

“It is reason to celebrate, and you want people to celebrate it, but you want them to do that physically distanced while wearing a mask,” she said