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Democrats dominate early voting in Florida - POLITICO

Democrats dominate early voting in Florida - POLITICO

Democrats dominate early voting in Florida - POLITICO
Oct 14, 2020 1 min, 36 secs

MIAMI — Republicans typically hold a slight edge in absentee ballot returns in Florida elections.

The unprecedented early voting numbers have electrified Democrats in President Donald Trump’s must-win swing state, but Florida campaign veterans warn that it’s too early for the party to celebrate.

For starters, Republicans say their data show that they have 400,000 more high-propensity voters who have yet to cast ballots when compared to Democrats.

“But we have far more high-propensity voters on our side.

While Florida Republicans used to dominate the absentee ballot game, Trump's demonization of voting by mail has played a role in the GOP’s relatively weak performance to date.

Though the state tracks the returns of voters by party, officials do not open the ballots and tabulate the actual votes, making the returns a rough estimate of turnout but not a precise picture of which candidate is winning the election.

Republicans had cast about 520,000 ballots, or about 29 percent of the total.

The remaining 20 percent of the ballots mailed in so far have been cast by independent voters who have no party affiliation or belong to minor third parties.

In addition, according to an internal analysis by Florida’s Democratic Party, its models show that 31 percent of those independent voters who have already cast ballots look like Democratic voters because their age and race more closely correlate with Biden voters; only 11 percent look like Trump voters.

Democrats also point out they’re beating Republicans when it comes to turning out newly registered voters, and that all of it is happening as Florida seniors, who typically back Republicans, appear more winnable for Biden this year when compared to how they voted in 2016

Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political science professor who tracks early voting nationwide, echoes data analysts on both sides of the political spectrum in saying that he wants to see what happens during Florida’s in-person early voting period — which begins Oct

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