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Here's Why Some COVID-19 Strains Are Spreading Faster Than Others - ScienceAlert

Here's Why Some COVID-19 Strains Are Spreading Faster Than Others - ScienceAlert

Here's Why Some COVID-19 Strains Are Spreading Faster Than Others - ScienceAlert
Jan 23, 2021 1 min, 38 secs

But every once in a while a mutation or suite of mutations gives the virus an advantage.

The data are convincing that the mutations carried by the variant that first appeared in the UK, known as B.1.1.7, make the virus more "fit.".

The latter two examples are called "founder events": a rapid rise in frequency can occur if a particular variant is introduced into a new group and starts a local epidemic.

Chance events may explain the rise in frequency of several different SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Some researchers estimate that B.1.1.7 increases the number of new cases caused by an infected individual (called the reproductive number or Rt) by between 40 and 80 percent; another preliminary study found that Rt increased by 50-74 percent.

A 40-80 percent advantage means that B.1.1.7 isn't just a little more fit, it's a lot more fit.

For many countries, like the US and Canada, where the number of COVID-19 cases has been precariously rising, a variant that increases transmission by 40-80 percent threatens to push us over the top.

One surprise for researchers was that B.1.1.7 bears a remarkable number of new mutations.

Both variants show a recent history of excess mutations and rapid increases in frequency within local populations.

The parallel evolution of the same mutations in different countries and in different immunocompromised patients suggests that they convey a selective advantage to evade the immune systems of the individuals in which the mutations occurred.

This is challenging to answer because the many mutations that arose at once are now bundled together in these variants, and it could be any one or a combination of them that leads to the transmission advantage.

One study showed that N501Y had only a weak transmission advantage on its own, rising rapidly only when coupled with the suite of mutations observed in B.1.1.7.

The 40-80 percent transmission advantage of B.1.1.7, and potentially the other variants B.1.351 and P1, will overwhelm many countries in the next few months.

Summarized by 365NEWSX ROBOTS

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