Huge relief as Ukrainian grain shipped out, but the food crisis isn't going anywhere - CNN

But even as the UN-brokered agreement to lift the blockade has eased grain prices, experts say the belated shipments from Ukraine are no quick fix to the crisis, accelerated by years of pandemic-related disruptions, the climate crisis, conflict, food export restrictions and spiraling costs.

"It may be that we see peaks in food prices again, and peaks in food insecurity, but certainly not a resolution of the situation anytime soon."

Global hunger has increased massively, from 135 million people acutely food insecure in 2019 to 345 million in 2022, according to the World Food Programme (WFP).

It includes "50 million people in 45 countries that are knocking on famine's door," David Beasley, WFP's executive director, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on July 20, as he called on other donor countries, like Gulf nations, to step in an "avert catastrophe."

Today's crisis is far worse than the previous food price spikes of 2007 to 2008 and 2010 to 2012, which both fueled riots around the world, including revolutions in the Middle East.

Ijabu Hassan lost three children to malnutrition this year, telling CNN that her 2-year-old daughter collapsed and died on their trek to the capital, Mogadishu, to seek help.

"I cried so much," she said, "I lost consciousness."

As desperate parents like Hassan seek reprieve, the UN estimates 7 million people — or over half of Somalia's population — simply do not have enough to eat.

Longstanding conflict in countries like Somalia and Afghanistan has impacted people's ability to access food, and the climate crisis is only worsening the situation.

"The country needs the import for structural reasons -- every year national consumption is far higher than production -- and because the country is regularly exposed to massive weather events, drought and climate change will make things worse in the future."

Ukraine's wheat production, too, is expected to be 40% lower than last year's, as its fields are impacted by the war; fertilizer and pesticides are harder to get; but also because of an early spring cold pattern and dryness in the country's west, Attia said, adding that the impacts could last well into next year.

"If Ukrainian grains are partially, physically missing because of low production and difficulties in exporting then, this will lead to greater food insecurity this year and next," he said.

Governments began to face inflationary pressure and global food prices began to soar as production disruption and high demand from countries like China were "really tightening that balance between supply and demand and pushing up prices," said Wellesley, from Chatham House.

Economies of poorer countries have been left in tatters while middle income nations have incurred large debts, limiting their governments' ability to offer social safety nets and provisions that would help the most vulnerable through this food supply crisis, she added.

As food prices exploded following Russia's invasion, countries began restricting exports.

Even if there are currently high inventories of rice, protectionism and people turning to rice as a substitute for wheat could impact prices.

There is a lot of uncertainty if that can happen, but flow is undoubtably "going to really pick up," he added.

The Ukrainian government and the Turkish Defense Ministry said three more ships were expected to leave Ukrainian Black Sea ports on Friday laden with grain.

As and when wheat prices drop to pre-war levels, Torero worries that the return of Ukrainian and Russian grain on the markets could further reduce wheat prices and in the process impoverish poor farmers, who shouldered high fertilizer and energy costs to plant their crops.