John Hollinger’s 2022 NBA Mock Draft: Chet Holmgren goes No. 1 before the real intrigue starts at No. 4 - The Athletic

The waters will only get murkier as we get into draft night, with several more picks expected to be in play or on the move.

Trade scenarios are very much in play as high as the 4th pick; seemingly all the lottery teams after the top three are looking to move out or move down for immediate help, while all the teams beneath them with multiple picks are looking to move up.

• Houston’s acquisition of the 26th pick from Dallas will be completed on draft night after the Mavs make their selection, or possibly after free agency starts.

Because the deal isn’t technically done, there is still a chance for this trade to expand.

• The Nuggets acquired pick 30 from Oklahoma City in a salary dump (sending out JaMychal Green and a future first) that was stage-managed to look like an acquisition; that one also hasn’t been called in to the league yet and could expand depending on what happens on draft night.

Other teams with roster crunches and multiple seconds include Minnesota (40, 48 and 50), New Orleans (41 and 52) and Sacramento (37 and 48); each is likely to try either consolidating picks to move up or trade for future seconds, and any players they select will likely be on two-ways.

• That last point is important; a lot of teams believe in sussing out from agents ahead of time which players are willing to take a two-way if drafted in the second round.

I’m lukewarm on this strategy — once a player is drafted he doesn’t have a lot of other options — but some teams don’t even want to chance a player signing the tender and occupying a roster spot.

He put his name back in the draft an hour after pulling his name out, which is a strong indication that he has a promise in the second round from one of the teams with multiple second-round picks.

I think I might be the only person who thinks there’s a realistic chance Holmgren goes No.

as the top-rated player (as do I), I don’t think that has ever moved the needle on how this front office thinks.

Houston packaging some of those other picks to move up from 17, on the other hand, seems much more in play.

As near as one can tell, the teams that would trade up with Sacramento for this pick are doing it for Ivey, not Murray.

So if you think there’s a 50 percent chance they trade the pick, a 75 percent chance the acquiring team takes Ivey and a 33 percent chance the Kings take Ivey if they keep it, then the overall odds still favor Ivey.

Sacramento trading down here is interesting, but I’m not sure I see the deal that helps the Kings, especially with teams like Washington and New York.

4 trade could be part of the draft pick musical chairs on Thursday.

46 and two future seconds to Sacramento for the fourth pick makes all kinds of sense for both teams.

The Blazers have so many options because they’re sitting on a $20.8 million trade exception from the CJ McCollum trade, which allows them to take in a player like Grant (or OG Anunoby, or Harrison Barnes, etc.) without needing to match salary.

The angle: With a $6.2 million trade exception from the Steven Adams deal, trading the eighth pick for a player and the accompanying $5.4 million salary slot for somebody who makes roughly the same amount is a real option, as it’s the one way for the Pelicans to add “win now” talent while staying below the luxury tax.

The Spurs, even in recent years, have valued bigs more than other teams (I mean, given their history, you would, too), and Duren gives them a fallback if they either trade Jakob Poeltl or see him leave as a free agent in 2023.

The Spurs also have picks 20, 25 and 38 and could try to package them to move up, but I don’t see the team ahead of them that is jonesing to move down and complete a trade like this with them.

With the win-now help unappealing, Washington might trade this pick for a point guard as part of its plan to chase a 44-win season around Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņģis.

There isn’t a real point guard worth reaching for at this point in the draft.

A trade of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ish Smith and this pick for Indiana’s pick at 31, Malcolm Brogdon and Goga Bitadze would solve Washington’s point guard problem, at least for the 36 games that Brogdon plays this year, and open up some more room for the Pacers.

There isn’t really a point guard to draft in this spot, although the Knicks-y move would be to select the Kentucky guy (TyTy Washington), even if it’s 10 spots higher than everyone expects him to go.

I also think the Knicks are a very plausible trade-down team; they’ve been pretty canny about extracting value on draft night in the Leon Rose era, and if there’s a sleeper pick in the late teens, it would be a smart play given how many teams are trying to move up.

Let’s just say teams with head coach openings are going to be a bit nervous about going to the finish line with Atkinson; surely, in any repeat of a situation like this one, they aren’t going to let him finish out the season in Golden State before signing the contract.

The Hornets have picks 13 and 15, and at least one of them is in play — possibly for Indiana’s Turner, or even in a package to move up.

If Charlotte keeps both picks, there is a strong case for leaving Williams to the pick at 15 and taking a perimeter player at 13, knowing that the Cavaliers are extremely unlikely to draft a big at 14.

More generally, if this pick gets moved to whomever, Branham is probably the consensus best player available at this point in this mock.

So, yes, I do think this pick, like many here, is very much in play.

I also struggle to see who the guy is here that sends the Bulls head over heels, especially if the top 15 picks play out the way I outlined above.

Even for other teams that might trade into this spot, Liddell checks a lot of boxes as a role-player four; it’s not hard to imagine a team like Memphis or Minnesota trading up for him.

The Spurs have picks 20, 25 and 38 and could easily find themselves trading up, if they can just find a partner willing to trade down.

Daryl Morey’s front office in Houston operated like this, too, calling everyone and getting the wheels turned with lots of offers … but their actual trade history (beyond the obligatory flipping of second-rounders in every single draft) was less active than their rep.

If they keep the pick, the fit with Liddell is hard to ignore, but I have him off the board at this point.

Speaking of which, a Milwaukee trade of pick 24 to Orlando for picks 32 and 35 makes too much sense to ignore.

Houston probably would rather push this pick into a future season, but moving picks in the late 20s for a future first is complicated, and the Rockets may be stuck making the choice.

An international stash also is a possibility, but the options feel like reaches until the draft get into the 30s.

While I don’t expect the Heat to move this pick, it could end up in play in scenarios where Miami moves Duncan Robinson and multiple picks for a difference-maker.

Financially, there is one clear trade option here: Golden State could trade down with Indiana (pick 31) and draft a player who would make the league minimum next year.

Memphis doesn’t need to roster its 29th pick this year and could take an overseas player here.

The problem is that I don’t think the overseas players are good enough to justify investing a first-round pick.

The Grizzlies also could trade out of this pick, but historically this is a difficult place from which to trade.

You can’t really trade for a random “future first” when you’re offering pick 29 as the return.

On a talent basis, he might be the best player left on the board at this point