The Dolphins Wanted To Let Tua Tagovailoa Go. Now They’ve Unleashed Him. - FiveThirtyEight

All of the quarterbacks the Miami Dolphins wanted instead of Tua Tagovailoa are struggling: Tom Brady is off to one of his worst-ever starts, Deshaun Watson is suspended, and Jacoby Brissett just lost a seemingly un-losable game to the New York Jets.

Meanwhile, after Sunday’s monster comeback-win performance in Baltimore, Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns1 and is No.

2 in total QBR, while the Dolphins are 2-0 with a 77 percent chance of making the playoffs (and a 5 percent chance to win the Super Bowl).

Since coming off the bench in Week 10 of last season, Tagovailoa has been a top-10 quarterback: He ranks eighth in raw QBR (62.7), seventh in passer rating (99.1), seventh in expected points added per dropback (0.14), and eighth in yards per dropback (6.69), according to ESPN Stats & Information Group.

In fourth quarters across that span, Tagovailoa ranks second (80.4), fourth (111.9), sixth (0.19), and sixth (7.51) in the same stats, respectively.

He finished 28th in air yards per attempt (6.92), per ESPN Stats & Information, and 29th in the rate of passes that went at least 20 yards through the air (7.5 percent).

He currently ranks fourth among qualified passers in adjusted completion percentage,2 with 33.7 percent of his attempts traveling at least 10 yards in the air (which ranks 11th), and 10.8 percent going at least 20 yards (13th).

As noted by NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Waddle gained more yards on vertical “go” routes on Sunday (73) than he did all of last season (43), and amazingly, Hill’s 108 go-route yards against the Ravens approached his 2021 season total (147) while playing with Mahomes.

Before the comeback, the Dolphins had seemingly run into a buzzsaw: Their opening kickoff being returned for a touchdown put Tagovailoa in a hole before he even got under center — and a three-touchdown explosion from Lamar Jackson in the first half seemingly made any attempt by Tagovailoa to climb out of it futile.

He went 24-of-30 in the second half, averaging 10.63 yards per dropback and posting an astounding 99.2 raw QBR.

Baltimore didn’t take it easy on Tua, either; their blitz rate didn’t change from the first half to the second (23.8 percent vs. 23.3 percent), and their rate of man-to-man coverage actually increased (34.9 percent vs. 41.4 percent).

According to ESPN Stats & Information, Baltimore was in dime coverage on a whopping 57 percent of their second-half defensive snaps (up from 20 percent in the first half), and in nickel for 39 percent (up from 37 percent).

The extra reinforcements didn’t matter — Tagovailoa and Miami’s passing offense shredded Baltimore’s secondary anyway.