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The Frogs Vanished, Then People Got Sick. This Was No Harmless Coincidence. - ScienceAlert

The Frogs Vanished, Then People Got Sick. This Was No Harmless Coincidence. - ScienceAlert

The Frogs Vanished, Then People Got Sick. This Was No Harmless Coincidence. - ScienceAlert
Sep 20, 2022 57 secs

The findings, which were first presented in 2020, have now been peer-reviewed, and they show that Bd-driven amphibian losses led to a substantial increase in the incidence of malaria – a disease transmitted by infected mosquitoes – first in Costa Rica in the 1980s and 1990s, and then again in Panama in the early 2000s, as the fungus spread east.

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first causal evidence of amphibian losses impacting human health in a natural setting.

The study relied on a multiple regression model to estimate the causal impact of Bd-driven amphibian decline on malaria incidence at the county level in Costa Rica and Panama.

Comparing an amphibian decline map and malaria incidence map between 1976 and 2016, researchers found a clear pattern that could be predicted with high accuracy and confidence by their model.

In the eight years after substantial amphibian losses from Bd, there was a spike in malaria cases equivalent to about one extra case per 1,000 people.

Researchers were only able to obtain some national data on dengue cases in Panama, not county-level data, but at this lower resolution, the findings also suggest an increase in dengue following amphibian decline.

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