Indian Americans, of whom there are 4.16 million (and just over 2.6 million U.S. citizens), comprise less than 1% of registered voters, but the group has gained prominence in the list of priorities of both the Donald Trump and Joe Biden campaigns as well as in “down ballot†contests.
Also read | Indian Americans still strongly identify with Democratic Party, says survey.
Both presidential campaigns are actively courting the Indian American vote, which is creating greater awareness.
But there is also increased bottom-up mobilisation due to growing political socialisation, campaign giving and interest group formation,†says Milan Vaishnav, who directs the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment and has co-authored the Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) 2020.
Also read | Kamal Harris’ Indian heritage could boost Joe Biden with Asian-American voters.
If getting Trump out of the White House is a motivating factor for Indians on the Democratic side of the aisle, keeping him there for a second term is motivating a smaller but no less determined group of Indian Americans on the Republican side.
Some 72% of registered voters are expected to vote for Democratic candidate Joe Biden and 22% for incumbent President Donald Trump, as per the IAAS.
Data | 72% of registered Indian American voters plan to vote for Biden: survey.
Also read | Joe Biden supporters launch Indian-American outreach in 14 languages.
“The common theme is ‘Don’t vote for Biden or Kamala because they’re anti-India…they’re pro-Pakistan, anti-India,’†Jayashree says.
The video, most of which has Hindi narration set to Indian music, says don’t vote for someone just because they are Indian (at this point one sees images of Republican politicians Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley and Ajit Pai) but vote for them because they stand for values: education, family (a photo of Harris and her grandparents in traditional Indian attire is shown at this point), nonviolence.
The IAAS finding on the Harris nomination is that while it may not change a large number of votes (since most Indian Americans already vote Democrat), it has led to higher levels of enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket.
The candidates themselves have actively courted the Indian American and the Hindu American community, participating in Independence Day commemorations around August 15, sending messages around Hindu festivals — presumably in response to criticisms that the candidates were not doing enough to recognise Hindu Americans.
Democratic party donor and fundraiser Frank Islam who is originally from Azamgarh, in Uttar Pradesh, says the view that a Biden presidency is bad for India and Trump presidency is good for it, is not based on facts.
Mason, an Indian American, is the man behind an ad the Trump campaign released this summer featuring clips of Modi and Trump at their joint rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad.
“According to my research — take it to the bank — I have everything documented — 50% of Indian Americans who have never been Republicans are moving over, or rather had moved over to President Trump,†he says.
“So anyone speaking otherwise is speaking nonsense,†he told The Hindu, which followed up with a Trump campaign official to get the survey report and data from Mason.
Also read | Joe Biden not good for India as he could be soft on China, says Donald Trump Jr.
Mason says there was a “slight pause†in this movement towards the Republican Party when Harris’s candidacy was announced.
Indian American voters, as per Mason, were moving to Trump for six reasons.
Another factor, Mason says, was Trump not criticising Modi on the Kashmir issue [the dilution of Article 370 in August 2019], when India’s policies were criticised by other governments.
Also read | Trump campaign releases commercial for Indian-Americans featuring PM Modi.
“President Trump went to the ‘Howdy, Modi!’ event in Houston and never once injected himself into the Kashmir issue…Kashmir is a very emotional topic for every Indian American,†he says.
Mason also cited the China factor — that Trump is seen as standing together with India and against China.
“Since yesterday [Tuesday] night, there has been so much excitement within the Indian American community that Mike Pompeo could make such a statement,†Mason says, referring to the Secretary of State’s statement that India was not alone in facing challenges as they arise.
In an email to The Hindu, Chityala cites the six factors he believes are driving an alleged movement of voters from the Biden to the Trump camp.
Chityala says lists like his form the basis of the Trump campaign’s outreach.
The President’s son, Donald Trump Jr., who campaigns for his father also recently brought up the China issue while engaging with Indian Americans.
So while the economy factor (which is cited by Mason and Chityala as favouring Trump) is the highest ranking issue, the U.S.-India relationship does not rank high as per the data.
An Indian American electoral advisor to a Republican candidate running for public office says that the Trump campaign has been “lacking in direct and effective†communication to the Indian Americans.
He agrees that since most Indian Americans are Democrats, there is more outreach activity on their side but this year has by far seen the most activity from a presidential campaign towards getting the Indian American vote
Regardless of what the outcomes of Tuesday’s elections are, there is a sense that Indian Americans — who have already established themselves in fields like medicine, academia, and business — have now arrived on the American political landscape