The outlook for House Republicans keeps getting worse - POLITICO

The GOP hasn't locked down even the lowest-hanging fruit on the House map, as Democrats could even expand their majority next month.

South Carolina Democrat Joe Cunningham has emerged as a favorite to retain the seat he unexpectedly won in 2018.

Here’s how grim things look for House Republicans three weeks out from the election: They’re struggling to win back seats even in conservative bastions like Oklahoma and South Carolina, where Democrats staged shocking upsets in 2018.

Privately, Republicans concede their chances of reclaiming Cunningham's coastal South Carolina district are dimming.

Trump won the seat by 13 points in 2016.

Not only are Republicans struggling to pick off Cunningham — a sign they have little chance of reclaiming the majority — but a few Democrats even believe there’s a slim possibility they don’t lose any incumbents next month.

Republicans' 2020 argument was that President Donald Trump would be a boon to their prospects in flipping the 30 Democratic-held districts he carried in 2016.

In reality, they are seriously contesting perhaps a dozen of them, and Democrats could even expand their majority.

In a district that Trump carried by 16 points, Brindisi has tried to focus on local issues, including his work to secure contracts for a manufacturing company in the district and to crack down on Spectrum, the much-hated cable company in the region.

Claudia Tenney is trying to win back the New York seat she lost to Democratic challenger Anthony Brindisi in 2018.

And I do think that that’s a shift,” said Abby Curran Horrell, the executive director of House Majority PAC, Democrats' main House super PAC.

Meanwhile, Democrats are feeling more optimistic about a Richmond, Va.-area seat held by Spanberger.

Republicans have trotted out a failed 2018 attack slamming the congresswoman for teaching at a Saudi-funded school in Virginia, dubbing it “Terror High.” And in Utah, GOP operatives privately concede that Democratic ads bashing their nominee, Burgess Owens, over bankruptcy and debt are helping McAdams.

Michelle Fischbach, is well-funded and plans to ride Trump's coattails in a seat he won by 31 points

In the closing weeks, national Republicans have begun to hone in on crime, warning in countless ads that Democrats plan to "defund the police." And they are most optimistic about this line of attack in the Staten Island-based district with a heavy law-enforcement presence, where Rose is locked in a tight race with state Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis

In most well-educated suburban districts, Trump is proving just as burdensome as he was in the 2018 midterms

Trump won the seat by 13 points, but some private polling now indicates a tight presidential contest there

"If we don’t win Congressional District 5, there’s probably a lot of other places we don’t win," said Chad Alexander, a former Oklahoma state GOP chair