Time for new foreign policy thinking in the Canberra citadel

Like the "summit" of business and union leaders Labor prime minister Bob Hawke held in the old Parliament building in 1983, this foreign policy gathering would involve people outside the government’s official circle but who know what they’re talking about when it comes to the key issues Australia faces – though their views may differ sharply at times.

It’s not the first foreign policy crisis Australia has faced, but it’s unique because of the hostility of China, our principal trading partner, and the chaos and dysfunction in the US, our principal ally, during Trump’s final days at the White House.

There are other nightmare scenarios, such as China invading Taiwan, triggering a call from the US to its allies in the region – including Japan and Australia – to help in taking on China militarily.

A good start would be for the National Security Committee of Cabinet – comprising Morrison, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, Treasurer and deputy Liberal Party leader Josh Frydenberg, Foreign Minister Marisa Payne, Defence Minister Linda Reynolds, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and Attorney-General Christian Porter – to hold a foreign policy crisis forum.

There should be prominent business figures with vast experience in dealing with China and operating in the US, such as Seven West Media chairman Kerry Stokes, Fortescue’s Andrew Forrest, and Warwick Smith, a former head of the Australia China Business Council.

Participants would address half a dozen or so scenarios for the future prepared by the Department of Foreign Affairs.

Interestingly, the US Rand Corporation, a foreign policy and defence research institute linked to the US Air Force, recently developed four scenarios for China in 30 years’ time.

Until we get something approaching coherence in dealing with China, we’re going to keep on shooting ourselves in the foot.

According to Curran, Australia has been through two foreign policy crises before – periods when it “faced real strategic uncertainty”.

As America’s Vietnam commitment came under domestic siege, Australia’s “Cold War policy collapsed”, Curran says, with fears that a bruised US would pull out of the region.

For US allies in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, the question, according to Curran, is are “these words of reassurance going to be enough?” For Australia, the reality is that “we don’t have anywhere else to go”, he says, pointing out that a sharp increase in defence spending required to underwrite the posture of a neutral Australia would come at the expense of government spending in areas such as health, education and social welfare.

“Until we get something approaching coherence in dealing with China, we’re going to keep on shooting ourselves in the foot,” Curran says.

Since 2017, when then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull foreshadowed the introduction of foreign interference laws aimed at curbing China’s meddling in Australian politics and internal affairs, there have been “plenty of legitimate positions the government has taken in terms of foreign interference", Currans says.