UK risks twice-as-big second COVID wave without better testing, study finds - Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain risks a second wave of COVID-19 this winter twice as large as the initial outbreak if it reopens schools full-time without improving its test-and-trace system, according to a study published on Tuesday.

If schools reopened full-time, 75% of people with COVID-19 symptoms would need to be diagnosed and isolated and 68% of their contacts would need to be traced, according to their study published in the Lancet Child and Adolescent Health journal.

If levels of diagnoses and contact tracing were below those identified by the modelling while schools were open full-time, the study said, the virus’s effective reproduction number, known as R, would rise above 1, triggering a second wave.

The study should not be taken as a reason to keep schools shut but rather as “a loud call to action” to improve the test-and-trace system, said Chris Bonell, one of its authors.