Updated PGA Championship 2022 Odds & Picks for Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, More - The Action Network

(For those who haven’t read my take on Rory and “back-door top-fives” in previous weeks, I think it’s one of the silliest narratives around. Players are supposed to play their best in the final round when it matters the most. I’d rather have money on a guy who does that and “back-doors” his way into strong finishes than the alternative, which I suppose is a guy who chokes away a lead at the end and claims what I suppose should be called a “front-door top-five” instead.).

Even if he doesn’t, though, nobody knows how to play his best golf late in the week like him, so expect another leaderboard-rising round on Sunday.

Chris Murphy: I was ready to go all in on my preseason prediction of Tony Finau winning a major and double down on it this week at the PGA Championship – until I saw his updated odds on DraftKings.

They dropped him from +8000 to +5000, and I’m less bullish on that number as a best bet.

He also has a tendency to jump back with great approach weeks in the rare times he is off with that part of his game, including the last time he lost seven shots on approach and bounced back with 7.5 gained in that category at the 2020 PGA.

These types of courses are typically a great fit for Thomas because he is one of the best iron players in the world.

Before JT wins, he typically shows some excellent performances in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach leading into the event.

His approach play is most definitely trending in the right direction as he gained 7.4 strokes at Valspar, 5.4 strokes at The Masters, and 4.6 strokes at RBC Heritage.

Joshua Perry: Homa was added to my card at +9000 when he got into contention at Wells Fargo, but I still like him here, with the best number at BetMGM.

If we look at the numbers from 2022, there are only three golfers that are in the top 35 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, and bogey avoidance.

The best number for Spieth can be found at BetMGM, as of Tuesday night.

1 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 11th in Putting, both over his previous 16 rounds in this field.

Bryan Berryman: Southern Hills will be a difficult test of golf for some of the game’s best players this week.

Over the last 50 rounds, Cantlay is the only player in this field who ranks top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Around the Green and Putting.

In his most recent stroke play event, he gained 8.7 strokes on approach en route to a second-place finish at the RBC Heritage in mid-April?

Although a major championship victory has eluded him to this point in his career, it seems like a matter of “when” and not “if” for Cantlay; who has been knocking on the door of elite status for some time now.