US, UK know Iran attacked oil tanker, but are unlikely to strike back - The Times of Israel

Two ship crewmen, a British and a Romanian national, died in the attack on the Mercer Street, a ship operated by Zodiac Maritime, a London-based company belonging to Israeli tycoon Eyal Ofer.

Analysts said the attack bore all the hallmarks of tit-for-tat exchanges in the shadow war between Israel and Iran, in which vessels linked to each nation have been targeted in waters around the Gulf.

.@SecBlinken on Mercer Street tanker attack: “There is no justification for this attack on a peaceful vessel on a commercial mission in international waters.

Despite the widespread belief that Iran was directly responsible for the lethal strike, the attack should not be seen as a significant chapter in the long struggle between Iran and Israel.

“The Mercer Street attack marks the confluence of two trends in Iranian regional aggression: attacking commercial vessels at sea and using drones,” Ari Cicurel, a senior policy analyst at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told The Times of Israel.

“This latest attack represents a growing tendency by Iran and its proxies to use drones, particularly armed suicide drones across the Middle East, which are challenging for existing air defense systems to intercept,” he said.

It is unclear exactly what Iran was seeking to accomplish with the attack, though it seemed to fit an Iranian pattern of striking Israel-linked vessels in response to Israeli actions in Syria or at sea.

The Mercer Street strike would appear to fit that pattern.

The Mercer Street is managed by a London-based company, but it is unlikely that Iran was looking to specifically target the UK.

In March, the Wall Street Journal reported that Israel has targeted at least 12 ships bound for Syria, most of them transporting Iranian oil, with mines and other weapons, starting in late 2019.

But this attack won’t necessarily lead to another retaliatory strike by Israel on Iranian shipping.

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