When no stock-market lead is safe, here's what history shows the Nasdaq's near-term returns look like (it's not pretty) - MarketWatch

Rallies are getting squashed and no lead appears to be safe for the stock market in recent trade.

In fact, the Nasdaq Composite.

intraday reversal on Thursday — when it was up 2.1% at its peak but ended down 1.3% — represented its largest reversal for a loss since April 7, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The disintegration of a big intraday uptrend comes after the Nasdaq Composite entered a correction — defined as a decline of at least 10% (but no more than 20%) from a recent peak — for the first time since March 8, 2021, and reflects the fragility of the market as it braces for a regime of higher interest rates and overall less-accommodative policy from the Federal Reserve.

Based on days in which the Nasdaq Composite has registered an intraday gain of at least 2% but ended lower, the index tends to perform poorly.

Gains for the index 30 days out are better, a gain of 0.5%, while three months out the return improves to a rise of 1.4%, based on Dow Jones Market Data, tracking 2% intraday moves going back to 1991.