Fact-checking 7 statistical claims from Biden's (quite factual) economic speech - CNN

Jan 26, 2021

Biden said: "Over the last year, more than 600,000 educators have lost their jobs in the cities and towns."

Facts First: This figure is roughly accurate, but it relies on a broad definition of "educators."

Biden's claim is based on official federal data about people employed in "local government education." That data does indeed show a loss of more than 600,000 jobs -- 681,400 jobs, specifically -- between January 2020 and December 2020.

Poverty

Biden said, "All told, the American Rescue Plan would lift 12 million Americans out of poverty and cut child poverty in half.

It includes additional direct payments, increased unemployment benefits, billions in rental assistance and food assistance, billions for child care, an increase to the child tax credit, and an increase in the federal minimum wage from $7.25 per hour to $15 per hour.

Pre-existing conditions

Biden touted an executive order that seeks to ensure people can still receive unemployment benefits if they turn down a job offer because they think the job will put them or their families at risk from Covid-19.

Chan School of Public Health, said Biden's statement is "a reasonable projection."

The minimum wage and poverty

Touting his proposal to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour from the current $7.25 per hour, Biden said, "No one in America should work 40 hours a week making below the poverty line.

Fifteen dollars gets people above the poverty line."

Facts First: It's true that some people who are currently below the poverty line would move above the poverty line if the federal minimum wage were raised to $15 per hour: the Congressional Budget Office estimated in 2019 that a $15 minimum wage "would move, on net, roughly 1.3 million people out of poverty." Others offer different estimates; Ben Zipperer, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank, said, "We believe the CBO estimate to be too pessimistic." He said it is "more plausible" that between 1.9 million and 4.0 million people would be lifted out of poverty.

The CBO said families below the poverty line under current law would see a 5.2% average increase in income because of the increased minimum wage, while families above the poverty line under current law would see an average 0.1% reduction in income (in part because of a reduction in business income).

Making $15 per hour, that person would exceed the threshold if they worked 44 weeks a year.

"So as a labor standard -- yes, a $15 minimum wage could be accurately described as getting most families over the poverty line if they are working full-time year round," said Jeannette Wicks-Lim, associate research professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Some people have part-time work hours, part-year employment or bigger families; the cost of living varies widely by location, but the official poverty line doesn't adjust for this fact; exceeding the poverty line may mean only someone has "escaped severe deprivation," she said, not that "they are able to sustain a decent living standard."

Hunger

Biden said, "We need to tackle the growing hunger crisis in America.

The Census Bureau survey found that 5.2 million people said it was either very likely or somewhat likely they would have to leave their home due to eviction in the next two months.

Biden's rescue package would provide $25 billion in rental assistance for low- and moderate-income households who have lost jobs during the pandemic (in addition to the $25 billion Trump approved in December).