Oscars 2023 Nominations Predictions: Our Final Guesses - Vulture

Jan 23, 2023

All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany’s official submission, made the Oscar shortlist in every category it was eligible for, and last week became the most-nominated film at the BAFTA Awards, whose membership has a significant overlap with the Academy.

This leads me to believe we won’t see SAG nominee Women Talking, which seems more respected than beloved, or PGA pick Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, a sympathetic contender nevertheless hampered by its unfortunate last-minute creative revamp.

After flirting with Palme d’Or winner Ruben Östlund of Triangle of Sadness and the venerable Park Chan-wook of Decision to Leave, I’ve finally found the international director I’m ready to settle down with: German braver Junge Edward Berger, whose visceral battle scenes have powered All Quiet ’s surge.

As luck would have it, the most likely alternatives are the leading men from a pair of intimate A24 dramas: Jeremy Pope as a gay Marine recruit in The Inspection, and Paul Mescal as a single dad not really enjoying his vacation in Aftersun.

Fans who fear another round of #OscarsSoWhite sense they both could miss out at the last minute; I’m more optimistic, since rivals like Babylon ’s Margot Robbie and Empire of Light ’s Olivia Colman have each struggled for traction themselves.

This is another place we could see All Quiet on the Western Front, which also got in at BAFTA, but since that film’s changes from the Remarque novel were among its more controversial elements, I’ll go instead with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, which picked up a telling USC Scripter nod for its decision to move the classic children’s tale to Fascist Italy.