Why Russia could be trying to invade Ukraine — and how Biden could stop it

Today, there are few quantitative differences from the last few times Russia threatened its neighbor.

Today, there are few quantitative differences from the last few times Russia threatened its neighbor.

In recent weeks, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has told journalists that he had concrete evidence that a coup — orchestrated by a Ukrainian oligarch and crony of Russian President Vladimir Putin — was planned for Dec.

On Tuesday, President Joe Biden sits down for a make-or-break teleconference with Putin.

Biden, while openly endorsing its democratic principles, undermined NATO with his unilateral decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and then blatantly undercut France in a submarine deal with Australia and Britain.

My personal feeling is that much of this has left Putin questioning whether Biden is capable of reacting effectively or of mustering allies effectively.

My personal feeling is that much of this has left Putin questioning whether Biden is capable of reacting effectively or of mustering allies effectively in the event that Russia does try something.

(The downsides of Putin’s strategy, of course, are equally evident. Increased isolation, for example, would doom Putin’s efforts to rejoin the G-7, which Russia was expelled from after it seized Crimea in 2014.).

For Putin’s Russia, a toxic confluence of domestic pressures and international opportunities is shaping an outcome that could prove catastrophic — a scenario that Putin’s real or perceived foes must handle most deftly.

A firm and united front by NATO, which Putin clearly respects; a show of sustained force on the Black Sea, which Putin still assesses that his warships dominate; and a credible threat of united Western action — up to and including air power convincing Russia that its forces wouldn’t control the battlefield — could prove decisive.