Covid modelling that pushed back June 21 was based on out-of-date data - Telegraph.co.uk

Government published figures to support pushing back ‘Freedom Day’ despite knowing estimates of vaccine effectiveness were incorrect.

Yet it has now emerged the models were based on out-of-date estimates of vaccine effectiveness, which assumed far fewer people protected by the jabs.

The effectiveness of the Pfizer jab was also underestimated by the groups, with Imperial estimating 84 to 90 per cent, LSHTM 85 to 90 per cent and Warwick 86 to 95 per cent.

He called for the modellers to re-run the models based on the new data as soon as possible “so that, as the Prime Minister promised, a reappraisal can be made and a change made if it's justified”

Prof Hopkins said she had “no doubt” that the modellers would re-run the models based on the new data, yet it is likely to be too late to make a difference. 

Back in February, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) also underestimated vaccine effectiveness in models used to inform the roadmap

At the time, scientists believed jabs would reduce the risk of infection between 24 and 48 per cent after the first dose, and 30 to 60 per cent after the second dose. 

But real world results were already showing that Pfizer was reducing the risk of infection by 70 per cent after one dose and 85 per cent after the second dose. 

The models were indeed re-run with the updated figures, and eye-watering death estimates reduced