Reform UK’s rise may tempt Sunak into moving further right. Let the Netherlands be a cautionary tale | Tarik Abou-Chadi and Simon van Teutem

In July 2023, the centre-right Volkspartij voor Vrijheid (VVD) of the outgoing prime minister, Mark Rutte, chose to dismantle its governing coalition, citing insurmountable conflicts over policies aimed at managing and deterring asylum seekers.

Soon after, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, stepping in as the new party leader, declared an end to “murky compromises” on immigration and proclaimed the lifting of the decade-old cordon sanitaire with the far-right Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) in order to reinforce her pledge.

The manifesto included a large number of proposals specifically targeting asylum seekers, ranging from invasive phone checks to a move towards providing even more austere accommodation.

When he became prime minister, Rishi Sunak vowed to “stop the boats”, and has put sending asylum seekers to Rwanda at the top of his agenda.

As Reform gains ground, Sunak and his Conservative party seem to find it increasingly tempting to double down on “tough” immigration policies in a bid to woo back voters.

Geert Wilders, with his 25-year tenure as a Dutch MP and his status as longest-sitting party leader, skilfully manipulated issues around immigration and housing to his advantage against the novice Yeşilgöz-Zegerius.